If you are reading this, you are more than likely a fan of the Buffalo Bills, or at least football. If you are neither, than you are an avid reader, and therefore could possibly enjoy this article anyway. But for now, I’m talking to my fellow Mafia members.
Last week, we took a break from the anxiety inducing reality our world is facing right now to enjoy the first sense of real, live sports action in the form of the NFL draft. While we didn’t get to actually see any sports being played, we got a glimpse of how each NFL team will look heading into the 2020 season. Right now, it seems like fans getting a 2020 season is up in the air, but as the world hopes for a new tomorrow, it is hope that carries momentum to the upcoming season being a reality.
It is also hope that makes the NFL draft so exciting. We all have an idea of our team needs, as well as players out there who could fill those needs. This draws us to glean the internet for mock drafts that predict which teams will select certain college players. And as the hopeful humans we are, we might read high profile names or players with certain position monikers next to their names being selected to our team of choice. Us Joes and Jill’s react as if it is already done. Some Bills fans may have seen generational running back Jonathan Taylor in Chad Reuters mock draft being selected to the Buffalo Bills with the 54th pick. Now I wouldn’t say Buffalo Bills fans are irrational, but I did see fans on Twitter cementing him as our possible Bellcow.
Well speculation time is over. Most of the prospective college players have wound up with teams who have selected them, and we can look at our teams through a cleaner scope. However, if you are like me, you may have paid attention to high profile names and maybe fantasy impacting players. You may have looked at several mock drafts taking new Buffalo Bill AJ Epenesa at earlier picks, and gave a Dwight Schrute-like fist pump knowing we got a “steal”. You may have even listened to your favorite fantasy football podcast and heard the name Zach Moss mentioned prior to the draft and gave a satisfying head nod. Let’s not forget the true draft warriors who stuck around on a fair weather Saturday to see “QB1: Behind the Lights” pretty boy Jake Fromm get his name called to join the Buffalo Bills and went “Hey! That’s the last person left that I know! That must mean he’s good!”
But what can we really expect from these guys? If you are a college football die-hard who knew exactly what Buffalo was getting in Isaiah Hodgins because you watched him manhandle UCLA to the tune of 10 catches for 123 and 3 last October, then you may have that answer. For the rest of us, we have to go off of word of mouth and highlight tapes. Let’s do just that.
Word of Mouth
Every Bills fan gives the draft an A+++. Across Buffalo people saying things like “Oh so Zach Moss is a younger, more athletic Frank Gore”, and let’s not forget the group goofball with their “I can’t believe Stefon Diggs was still there at 22”line in all his/her zoom chats.
Fortunately for us glass completely full fans, word around the football world isn’t much different. While I haven’t found any A+++ grades from sources outside of my fandom, we did receive honor roll grades from the following sources;
A: Chad Reuter, NFL.com
A: Vinne Iyer, Sporting News
A: Pro Football Focus
B+: Mel Kiper, ESPN
B+: Justin Leger, NBC Sports Boston (Emphasis on Boston. He would’ve given any other team an A).
B+: The Score
B: Andy Benoit, SI.com
B: Dan Kadar, SB Nation
Reading through each summary for the grades above, I can summarize the common reactions from the anecdotes these sources gave regarding their grades. Many believed the value of WR Stefon Diggs was worth not having a 1st round pick. I kept reading about how Epenesa was rated much higher than his 2nd round landing spot, how Jake Fromm is a great value pick that can serve as a valuable mind in the QB room, and how Zack Moss is a perfect complement to Devin Singletary. For the value picks, we got two tall receivers, perhaps the strongest legged kicker in the draft, and a value piece in Dane Johnson.
On top of that, both WR Isaiah Hodgins and QB Jake Fromm made it into “Lance Zierleins 3 favorite picks by round”, while WR Gabe Davis and Fromm were mentions in “Daniel Jeremiah’s Top Day 3 Sleeper Picks”.
These are all reasons to get excited. Luckily as Bills fans, we like getting really, really excited. So here I am thinking to myself “what creates more hype than anything?” The answer, highlight videos. While we know all of our professional athlete are human, have flaws, and will have bad plays from time to time, we can take a look at what it is about these players that got them to the NFL draft, and what our front office noticed about these players that got them the nod to join our team.
The Buffalo Bills have created a winning culture. For the first time in my personal fanhood (around 2005), I can confidently say a successful season will be to be the best team in the NFL, rather than “please just make the playoffs”.
With an organization that brings the best out of everyone involved, we can assume that our rookies will be pushed to be their best on a consistent basis, so it’s safe to assume that those who are active members of the squad will have to display their best abilities, demonstrated in highlight videos.
So without further ado, I will present to you my perspective of what these rookies will do to get Bills fans jumping out of their seats on game day.
AJ Epenesa: Defensive End. 2nd Round Pick, 54th Overall.
What they said: The overall media reaction to the Buffalo Bills 54th overall pick was a positive one. Many people in the media and on Twitter said he should be a first round pick (Many mock drafts had the Bills selecting Epenesa with their 22nd pick before they traded it to Minnesota). Media sources described Epenesa as a “tough kid” who “likes to wreak havoc”. They commended his ability to win one-on-one battles vs. lineman. Although he is not a speed rusher, several of those in the media drew attention to a level of quickness he possesses that gives reason to impress given his size.
What I saw: I noticed that quickness in a lot of his moves, especially on his block escaping maneuvers. What I paid extra attention to may make sense of his deceiving quickness. In his highlights at least, Epenesa shows an amazing control of his center of gravity. When zeroing in on ball carriers, he displays a great ability to keep a wide stance, keep his feet under him, and create a narrower path in which runners can advance the ball. Also, as I was watching his engagements with blockers, Epenesa’s body language demonstrates awareness of momentum, paired with his above average body strength on the football field, the Bills have found a player that can really manipulate offensive lineman by using their footwork to impose positive momentum for himself, as well as his teammates.
At this point, I would like to tell you how these intangibles play in with his line mates. However, the defensive line is by far the most modified group on the Buffalo depth chart. We haven’t seen half of these guys line up in our system with the rest of our team. Heck, we don’t even know who the “starting” d-lineman are (starting in quotations because I believe we will be rotating very heavily). What I can say is this; our defensive line got much bigger and much stronger than last year even before the draft. Adding Epenesa gives us a stout front that teams will have trouble running on, especially if our dline can overpower and create gaps for our linebackers. On passing plays, I think Bills fans will see a lot of pockets slowly close in as Oliver, Epenesa and company beat down offensive lineman, especially throughout an entire game. Expect the Bills to have a higher sack total in third and fourth quarters, as lineman get too “broken down” to continuously block our really strong guys (Think Derrick Henry wearing down a defense).
One more thing before I leave Epenesa. If his highlight videos indicate anything, be prepared for a looooooot of strip sacks. Seems like he had at least two a game. Get excited guys.
Zach Moss: Runningback. 3rd round, 86th overall,
What they said: The central focus around the Zach Moss reaction was giving homage to his production at Utah, where Moss has career records for rushing touchdowns, 100-yard rushing games, all-purpose touchdowns, among others. There was a common comparison to Frank Gore, which although might be low-hanging fruit as one of the Bills prime backs this past year. It is however valid. I’ll explain more in the “What I saw” section, but my main takeaway was mentioned in some draft reactions that ties is with Frank Gore’s running style (Don’t worry Bills fans, we’re talking “808’s and Heartbreak” years Frank Gore, and not “Jesus is King” years Frank Gore). The comparison was drawn from both their awareness of the field and all around agility. Both very downhill runners, which possess a wiggle that benefits a running back of their stature and physical nature. Overall, a quality pick to compliment running back Devin Singletary in our offense.
What I saw: So I watched the highlight tapes before I scoured draft reactions to find uniform phrases people were using with Moss, so I already had that field awareness comment penciled in for Moss before I heard other people say it. All that means is, it’s noticeable. Watching his highlight videos, Moss, like a young Frank Gore, possesses an almost magnetic ability to find open space and take advantage of it. Even when there are defenders in his immediate area, Moss shows a range of athletic skills that allow him to capitalize on his surroundings and find extra yards. Whether it was spinning out of would be tacklers at the handoff exchange, maneuvering through running lanes, or setting the tone of momentum in his vicinity, Moss seems to know how to extract the ultimate amount of yards he can get. This also translates into a very underrated skill for runningbacks. I’ve seen this with runningbacks like Alvin Kamara, Marion Barber, and Kareem Hunt. While they are different in their style of play, they show a lack of need of momentum to get small yards. On a lot of carries, Moss is stopped in his tracks, and can find three or four extra yards without the wait of his momentum. This is a very valuable skill not only to get us to the first down marker or the end zone, but to take some of that need off of Josh Allen, who has been the “small yards” guy for our team in the past two years. We will still have moments in which Josh can quickly snap the ball and push himself to a first down or touchdown, but with Zach Moss, we can game plan away from the need to use Josh as a battering ram, which can cause fumbles and injury scares.
As Zach moss gets the “bruiser back” moniker, he does showcase a positive trait longer lasting bruiser backs have; he doesn’t choose contact. While his highlight videos shows him barreling through defenders, a close watch will show that on many of his runs, he makes the move to avoid the tackler and run into open space. I love this trait in the bruisers of the NFL because 1) It reduces risk of injury and preserves energy throughout the whole season 2) It requires defenders to square up for a wider array of outcomes. With runningbacks like the aforementioned Marion Barber, along with other bruisers like Peyton Hillis or Brandon Jacobs, defenders know to close in and embrace contact, limiting the choices they have to make. With backs like Zach Moss, defenders know that he may fun forward into their chest, or look to weave around them. Much like Buffalo fans who see the difference a player like Buffalo Sabres Jack Eichel gets on the ice when given space, we will see Zach Moss be able to have more choices how to approach defenders, as they will be playing with less certainty, opening them up to lose more momentum battles when contact is created. As Buffalo has vastly improve its skill player arsenal, things will be opened up for a running back like Zach Moss to create more yards in a less-restrictive field.
One more thing I would like to add about Zach Moss that I haven’t necessarily heard mentioned but noticed in his tapes, is that he is a very natural pass-catcher. While only netting around 25 catches from year to year with some standard deviation, the passes caught in Moss’ highlight tapes looked very natural. Jason Moore of the Fantasy Footballers podcast always emphasizes the most important drill at the combine for runningbacks is the pass-catching drills, to observe how natural these backs can catch the ball. Knowing that many talented backs don’t catch many passes in college (Zeke Elliott averaged around the same amount of catches year to year at Ohio State), we must observe how a running back is able to get open, and catch the ball without having to think about it, allowing him to keep an eye on his next move once the ball is secure. Moss showed an ability to draw the ball into his grasp without losing any momentum. Don’t be surprised if Moss turns up as a fantasy darling with his end zone and pass-catching combination.
Now we head into the third day of the draft. At this point, teams are hopeful that they have filled necessary needs, and can look to find players that will improve the overall quality of the team. This seems to be exactly the situation for the Buffalo Bills this year, as we delve into our day 3 picks.
Gabe Davis: Wide Receiver. 4th round, 128th pick overall.
What they said: Coming from UCF, I heard a couple people in the media relay the words that you want to hear out of a draft selection who played smaller school; he is able to dominate small school defenders. It isn’t unusual that non-power 5 schools produce successful NFL players, but it does help to know that those players can prove that they are able to handle tougher competition. Think of it as moving a JV or freshman player up to varsity. You don’t do that unless that kid is clearly the best out of their competitive pool.
This is what a lot of analysts noted of Davis, who showed on several occasions the ability to control the line of scrimmage, win 1-on-1 balls, and create yards after the catch, with an extra emphasis on ability to high point footballs.
One more note mentioned that I always like to hear; he showed noticeable progression each year at UCF. This demonstrates hard work and a will to maximize potential.
What I saw: In terms of what I saw, I can’t add much more than what you might’ve seen in draft reaction videos. He shows an ability to get off the line of scrimmage, especially vs. smaller corners. And his highlight reels were home to a lot of what I will call “biggest kid in the pool” catches, where if there are people around, he has a good chance of getting up there and coming down with the ball.
One more note about his play is that he seemed to have good awareness of the sidelines, not only showing ability to keep his feet in for the catch, but the ability to use the sidelines to give his QB an area where he can box out defenders with his frame and control the space of the catch radius.
Now like I said, at this point we shouldn’t be looking for key contributors, so our rousing trio of Diggs, Brown, and Beasley should be making the majority of plays on the field. If earned, Gabe will serve as a rotational piece a la Isaiah McKenzie. You might not want him for fantasy, but at least twice each game he will make a play that moves the decibel gauge in the right direction. Depth is never a bad thing.
But what we have here is in my belief a very calculated move by our highly coveted front office. Not only does Gabe Davis bring a “big body” element to our lineup on game day, but him and sixth rounder Isaiah Hodgins, who we will discuss later, brings a different practice receiver that will allow our corners to challenge themselves with receivers who can bully them off the line and use their physicality to their advantage. Being able to practice against talented big-bodied receivers will help the Bills vs. 2020 opponents D.K Metcalf, Mike Williams, Juju Smith-Schuster, Devante Parker, Courtland Sutton, among others.
Also, the Davis’ college career was encompassed in one of the biggest culture-defining turnaround in NCAA history. Davis joined the UCF football program as a freshman in 2017. With head coach Scott Frost joining the program in 2016, here is a small sample of the UCF football programs season records from recent years:
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
0-12
6-7
13-0
12-1
10-3
If you don’t remember, UCF is the school who famously gave themselves a national championship after being excluded from the playoffs during their 2017 campaign when Davis was a freshman. This is a program who went from being hapless and dare I say pathetic, to a driving force not only in their conference, but all of college football. For a team with a recent similar turnaround in the NFL, we know that this can only be done through a well-rounded program of players, coaches, and developmental pieces can bind together for a drive to win against all odds. Each piece needs to be driven beyond their believed ability. To bring in an integral piece of that cultural turnaround on day 3, I am elated to conclude that we made a calculated move to get a player that knows how to tune in and drive everyone around them to perform at their best. Even if Davis never obtains a consistent role on Sunday afternoons, I can confidently say that the Bills added a player that will, as the day three objective should be, improve the overall quality of our team.
Jake Fromm: Quarterback. 5th round, 167th overall.
What they said. This is the pick the casual fan is most likely to have known before the draft. From starting quarterback from the perennial favorite Georgia Bulldogs, to pop culture darling as the baby-faced youngin on the TV show QB1: Beyond the Lights, Fromm, while being a 5th rounder, is probably the most recognizable selection in this Bills draft class for the casual fan. While it is always exciting to draft a recognizable name on day three, the casual fan might have skepticism as to why he lasted this long. After all, Chad Kelly’s name was also one recognized by Buffalonians to fall into the last day.
Fortunately, Jake Fromm is a much more polished football player, with a history of more suitable choices off the field. Members of the media give credit to the main tangibles you’d want in a backup QB, especially one you are drafting on day three (as opposed to other organizations, who received some flack for drafting backup qb’s earlier in the draft). They say he is one of, if not the most, mentally equipped quarterback in this class outside of Joe Burrow. The ideal is that Fromm will serve as a valuable voice in the quarterback room, helping Josh Allen as well as skill players create an offensive scheme that will make the decision-making aspect easier for our starting quarterback (think Kellen Moore with Dak Prescott). Also, with his leadership skills and winning demeanor, this is a guy who many analysts believe can step in and play well if God forbid Josh Allen ever needs to take time off.
What I saw. Before this, I’ve never really paid attention to Fromm’s play, as the few times I watched Georgia football, I was more enamored with De’Andre Swift, Nick Chubb, etc., but Fromm’s style of play really does earn him that “game manager” moniker. The two things I gathered from watching some of Jake Fromm’s better plays are
a. He has an arsenal of throwing styles that many below-average pro quarterbacks don’t possess
b. He likes to get rid of the ball very quickly.
What I mean by an arsenal of throwing styles is that he has this knack for knowing what type of throw is required on a certain play. Now Aaron Rodgers is more lethal (and also started as a backup), but if you have watched a Packers game in recent history, you can see Aaron Rodgers throw bullets, air droppers, back shoulder throws, side-winders, you name it. While they are highlights, the clips I watched showcase Fromm’s ability to adjust his throw to let his skill player gain advantage at the point of catch. I wonder if we can maybe trade a first round pick for a receiver who does well adjusting to balls and make contested catches….
Either way, Fromm also demonstrated a tendency for hitting his first receiver to make plays. As I started watching the highlight videos, I was worried that this would be a weakness, as throwing to the first look usually is a sign of inexperience at the quarterback position. However, as plays continued to roll, Fromm did show the capability to read progressions, and even had a nice play vs. Georgia Tech in which he looked off a safety to the left then came back and found receiver Javon Wims in the middle of the end zone for a touchdown. Again, while quarterback Tom Brady is much more lethal (and also started as a backup), I have watched him throughout my entire adolescence pick teams apart by hiking the ball and getting it out of his hands to skill players he knew would be in the right position to make a play. Taking Fromm’s ability to place the ball into account, as well as his football IQ, we can say that he more often than not knows what the defense is giving him, and where he can put the ball to allow his receiver to play on it. I heard somewhere that last year, then new Bills receiver Cole Beasley was on the phone with Allen multiple times a week talking offensive tactics and route adjustments depending on defense. I can imagine them adding in a third party to those conversations to create some pretty exciting stuff for next year (if that isn’t exciting enough, they also have one of the league’s proficient route runners to script around as well now). Overall, the Fromm pick is exciting. A quarterback who could win continuously, knows and loves football and competition in general, and fits into the positive culture the Bills are trying to create. Fromm will give us a young tactician who can provide insight to our offensive scheme, and provide the fan base with another young likeable golden boy to root for when his time is appropriate.
Tyler Bass: Kicker. 6th round, 188 overall.
What they said: Unfortunately, it was a little more difficult to find videos on how people reacted to this pick. But kickers can help teams too, and I think this pick can only help the team. What I did hear from people in the media was that Bass was their number 1 ranked kicker in this class. And yes, that includes the spectacled sensation from Georgia Rodrigo Blankenship.
What I saw: I did watch Tyler Bass’ lone highlight video, displaying kicks from weeks 1-4 in the 2019 season. Kid has power. They showed all of his kicks. He missed a 47-yard kick for his lone miss, but even that kick could’ve been good from 60 had it been on line. Other than that, the Georgia Southern team trusted him with plenty of kicks from long distance, including making a couple of 45+ yarders, which doesn’t happen often. His college stats show an overall 98.3% of accuracy on extra points, including 100% for his 2018 and 2019 season. While his total field goal percentage stands at 79.4% success, he went 19 for 21 his junior year, and based on the video I watched, his percentage may have gone down as the team trusted him with longer kicks. I think Bass will come in to compete with current kicker Stephen Hauscka, and I think whoever gets the nod come the season, that kicker would’ve had won the position, rather than “didn’t lose”, i.e I think we will have a good kicker, whoever it may be. Either way, this guy has enough of a leg to be kept around for kickoffs if needed.
Isaiah Hodgins: Wide Receiver. 6th round, 208th overall.
What they said: Obviously, standing at 6’4”, people will talk about the big frame, the catch radius, the ability to beat smaller corners. But fortunately for Hodgins, you can’t say that about every oversized receiver, so for the media to add these anecdotes is a positive. He was touted as a “go-to guy” for his team, receiving a brandish as a week-to-week performer, while 76% of his catches went for rather 1st downs or touchdowns. This tells me that he has the capability to be a leader for a team, and step up in big moments when needed. It was also common to note that Hodgins’ father was a fullback for the “greatest show on turf” Rams teams. That’s a dangerous combination. A fullback, one of the grittiest, hard-working, and selfless players on a football team encompassed in one of the most explosive offenses in recent history. It’s safe to say Isaiah grew up in a house with a role model that knew what type of person it takes to gives everything you have to create greatness.
What I Saw: That 76% first down/touchdown stat seems low based on his highlight tape. Almost every throw and catch in the tape was rather fifteen yards downfield or in the redone. He demonstrates good self-control on placement in his route, as well as how to remove the defender from the catch radius. The latter of those skills is one of my favorite traits in wide receivers. In the pros, we’ve seen this skill mastered by the likes of Brandon Marshall, Antonio Brown, Dez Bryant, among others. Knowing how to deceive a defender to put them in a position where the receiver had the advantage shows a level of comfort at the wide receiver position that I’m elated to have join our squad on day 3. Mix that with Hodgins’ ability to catch in traffic elevates the competition among the back half of our wide receiver group. Much like the kicker battle, whoever remains on our team past our top receivers will have won their spot with skills rather than “just being better than the rest”. If Hodgins makes the team, I will be optimistic that he can provide big plays when needed in big games, perhaps starting later in the year if not right away. He’ll get fans jumping if his momentum drives in this direction. If not, he can at least provide more talent for our defense to practice against throughout the week.
Dane Jackson: Cornerback. 7th round, 239th overall.
What they said: Again, at this point of the draft, we are just looking for players who can make the overall state of the team better. As a three year starter, Dane Jackson was a raw player who while had a high football I.Q, didn’t have the best reaction on outside routes. Don’t panic though. I know this is the first negative thing I have said about a draft pick in this article. But hey, with 238 players being selected before him, he’s not going to be Tre’De right away’de. This is a player who will act as a rotational piece that will be on the field to make plays, not to contain top receivers. Fortunately for the sake of the article, Jackson displays a lot of positive tangibles that create an effective, long-careered role player. Media analysts praised Jackson as a physical corner. An analysts at World of Sports Network even went as far to say that he might be the best pure tackling corner in this draft, with great awareness of where the ball carrier is headed, combined with
What I saw: They were not joking. Most of his highlights are tackles. Appearing in the right spot, covering for missed tackles from other teammates, and delivering punishing hits. Also, his ability to wrap up in the open field is enticing. I love this guy if he can be a screaming play maker. Think a bigger Nickel Robey-Coleman. While he wasn’t the best at covering receivers, he excelled in the slot as an all-around playmaker. I think if Dane Jackson makes his way towards the field, he will be able to act almost as an extra, more athletic linebacker role. I would love for him to take a couple runs as a blitzing corner here and there, while serving as a possible pro-bowl candidate as a special teamer, a la Matthew Slater of New England.
Summary
As I wrote this piece, I wanted to take into consideration how the Bills are formed at the moment, and find ways for these rookies to create roles for themselves on the team. Thinking about how each can serve our team has really got me excited. For the first time in a long time, our draft was centered on adding pieces that will improve the overall quality of the team as a whole. While we can expect early production from our day 2 picks, the Bills spent day three carefully selecting players that could fill roles based on their specific skills, rather in the position room, on the practice squad, on special teams, or even in the community. It also helped to analyze the different cultures from the colleges our rookies came from. While everyone will compete for playing time, I can confidently say that those who don’t get that opportunity right away will continue to bring a winning culture that they have developed from their respective programs. Bringing that to the winning culture the Bills have built in recent years, and we can count on this class to push one another, to push themselves to always improve, and to push the team to maximize their potential as we head towards a grinding season that will determine if the Bills will settles themselves at the top of the league.
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